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Trend prediction
Trend prediction information is much broader than ‘fashion prediction’ in that it may not be specifically related to fashion. Trends are recorded and trend predictors (looking for patterns of human behaviour, indicating changing markets or new consumer needs) constantly monitor the media and society.
Many industries use trend prediction to forecast relevant changes and plan product development, for example the interest in all things spiritual was forecast by Faith Popcorn, initially in the ‘Popcorn Report’ and was developed and continued in ‘Clicking’.
Spirituality is seen in the interest of such things as ‘Feng Shui’ which is a popular approach to interior design. Bookstores now have shelves dedicated to spirituality, as individuals look inwards to discover themselves in a fast-moving world.
The fashion prediction consultancy relies on experts in a variety of fields for its structure. They have personnel all over the world to help in gathering intelligence.
The full-time staffing of a consultancy generally consists of the editor who creates the company philosophy. The publisher, on the technical side, puts the information together. The retailing and merchandising professionals and fashion directors work on consultancy for individual clients, by applying the general fashion trends more specifically to their needs. They must be skilled in, and aware of, a variety of markets. This could, for example, involve developing exclusive collection strategies, concepts and designs for spinners, weavers, textile printers, men’s, women’s and children’s garments, shoe and accessory manufacturers and for retailer’s private labels. They may also be expected to sell subscriptions to the publications to new clients.
The objective is to work closely with the client to determine their concerns, goals and potential customers with a view to tailor-making a design solution.
The success of prediction companies relies on pinpointing trends and developing these for individual markets at the right time! Trends may be affected by social, cultural, political and economic moods, as well as evolutions in lifestyle, technological developments, media and retailing. This information is tapped and recorded by international correspondents who provide up-to-date intelligence from fashion capitals, such as London, Paris, Milan, New York, Florence and Tokyo.
The design team determines how this intelligence affects fashion and consumer
awareness.
Designers/Illustrators are employed with design skills in menswear, womenswear and childrenswear, and illustration skills in interpreting and developing silhouette themes, knit and woven samples, print stories and accessories. They visualise new ideas developed from the trend information and consider carefully figure proportions and stylization so that any personnel, using the service, can understand what is suggested by the visual.
International agents promote and sell the service to clients worldwide, for example in Los Angeles, Tokyo, London and Paris. Colour
Colour is the first consideration of season and is produced for autumn/winter and spring/summer ranges.
The colour is put into dye 18 months ahead of the specified season (some clients may require this information up to 2 years earlier, but this may not be shown in the final presentation box).
Fibre and fabric manufacturers require advanced information regarding colour as they have to develop their product early enough for designers and garment manufacturers to buy it and in turn develop their product. Presentation packs are usually presented with a fixed range of colour and a removable range so that clients can develop their own colour combinations. Colour packages are included in the subscription price and may be sold separately to clients who only require colour information and not the rest of the service.
The follows the setting of the mood for a new season by developing fabric and silhouette themes. Prediction consultancies produce a variety of materials and publications for their clients.
Directional themes and full-figure silhouette illustrations of menswear, womenswear and childrenswear together with accessories are shown. Included in the publication may be exclusive handlooms for wovens, knits and prints produced by freelance and in-house designers.
Commercial fabrics may be published at this time, derived from fabric fairs such as, Premiere Vision, Interstoff and Prato. These are created from hand cut and stuck swatches of directional fabrics relating to the season’s previously predicted themes.
The fashion prediction design process
One publication is worked in at a time (there may be 12-one a month, or more, depending upon the size of the consultancy and its breadth of expertise).
A company that develops its own thematic material will hold a succession of meetings with the core team resulting in decisions being made regarding the amount and content of the themes for a particular season, including evocative names. This is achieved by discussion. Each individual states what they fell will be a strong trend in the coming season. Where one idea is repeated by several members it is incorporated into the plan for the book. Where similar ideas are mentioned they are amalgamated to form a strong and identifiable trend.
A colour palette is decided upon. The colours are divided into groups corresponding with the themes. Some colours unavoidably overlap, but as main and accent colours alter the overall impression, each theme is sufficiently different.
The designers then start designing. The walls are covered with tear sheets from magazines, separated into appropriate themes as inspiration. Photographs from the trade fairs are used for guidance on design details.
Fabrics are then discussed in conjunction with the designers designing the garments. It is important to consider the balance of outerwear and separates fabrics. When decided, lengths of fabric and any interesting accessories are ordered to provide swatches for the books.
After the designs are completed they are illustrated with reference to particular markets and ‘lifestyles’ and to capture the ‘essence of the themes’. Technical drawings are also produced, either by the design team or by freelance illustrators.
Samples of knitwear and new textiles may be commissioned which will be photographed for the books.
Mood boards, containing visuals, fabric and trim, depicting the themes, are completed. The mood boards are sent away to be photographed and return as transparencies.
During the process of compilation, agents worldwide will have seen securing old and new clients, to whom the books will be sent on completion. a master copy of the book is compiled and sent to the printers to have a sample copy printed and bound. The copy is checked for any mistakes before the book goes into production.
Travel is an important aspect of fashion research and visiting trade fairs allows reports to be compiled which observe not only trends apparent from the exhibitors’ displays, but also from the people (who are mainly from the fashion industry) as they walk around the shows. This exercise helps to understand the differences in
international fashion, which is important when catering for foreign clients.
Theme development
Fashion prediction for a new season is usually promoted as a series of ‘themes’. These are designed to inspire and direct the designer for a number of markets. Themes, often, are given names to evoke feelings and moods and reflect the content of the theme. Each theme may appeal to one or more markets and requires interpretation from the designer to develop for their particular market. Often the prediction company offers some consultation to the designer which is helpful in this development.
Markets are usually defined by cost of the merchandise. Nowadays the markets referred to have vague names such as boutique, fashion aware, better end, pm dressing. This is more reflective of changes in ‘lifestyle’.
These can be interpreted into customers buying from:
Lower market – budget; lower middle – high street, chain stores; middle – independent labels and department stores; upper middle – designer diffusion; upper – designer.
Fashion prediction themes have often been very literal in their nature: nautical would show striped sweaters and sailor hats; utility always involve dungarees of some description and multiple pockets. A chic, tailored look may well involve a French beret.
It is important that visual codes are identifiable and mean similar things to different people. The illustration must work hard to convey a mood, an attitude, in the pose, that convinces the viewer about the sort of person that is being targeted.
Similarly, a total look is always helpful because accessories can contribute to not only the communication of the theme, but may also convey the type of person who would wear the ‘look’.
It is important that the proportion is believable and that the information is clear. Themes nowadays are less literal and are more about mixing ideas together to create something fresher. ‘Lifestyle’ has become important, consequently themes may not be put into an evocative setting which helps to create the correct mood. Less clothing detail is on view but the message allows the designer to make their own interpretations.
New uses of technology have resulted in the development of the Worth Global Style Network (WGSN) who produce a comprehensive on-line service to fashion industry. Members pay an annual subscription to view the full site; students may visit an educational version free of charge (for a limited period). The services available are: