·¢²¼Ê±¼ä : ÐÇÆÚÈý ÎÄÕ¡¶Ö¤È¯Í¶×Êѧ¡·¸´Ï°×ÊÁÏ-ÖÜ°®Ãñ2012.12¸üÐÂÍê±Ï¿ªÊ¼ÔĶÁ
¢Û PSYÈ¡ÖµµÚÒ»´Î½øÈë²ÉÈ¡Ðж¯ÇøÓòʱ£¬ÍùÍùÈÝÒ׳ö´í¡£Ò»°ãÒªÇóPSY½øÈë¸ßλ»òµÍλÁ½´ÎÒÔÉϲÅÄܲÉÈ¡Ðж¯¡£
¢Ü PSYÇúÏßÈç¹ûÔÚµÍλ»ò¸ßλ³öÏÖ´óWµ×»òMÍ·£¬Ò²ÊÇÂòÈë»òÂô³öµÄÐж¯Ðźš£
¢Ý PSYÏßÒ»°ã¿Éͬ¹É¼ÛÇúÏßÅäºÏʹÓã¬Õâʱ£¬±³ÀëÔÔòҲͬÑùÊÊÓá£
ÐÄÀíÏßÏÔʾµÄÂòÂôÐźÅΪʺóÏÖÏó£¬ÔËÓÃÓоÖÏÞÐÔ¡£
2¡¢OBV£¨ÄÜÁ¿³±Ö¸±ê£©
ÀíÂÛ»ù´¡£ºÊг¡¼Û¸ñµÄÓÐЧ±ä¶¯±ØÐëÓгɽ»Á¿ÅäºÏ£¬Á¿ÊǼ۵ÄÏÈÐÐÖ¸±ê¡£
Ó¦Ó÷¨Ôò£º
¢Ù OBV²»Äܵ¥¶ÀʹÓ㬱ØÐëÓë¹É¼ÛÇúÏß½áºÏʹÓòÅÄÜ·¢»Ó×÷Óá£
¢Ú OBVÇúÏ߱仯¶Ôµ±Ç°¹É¼Û±ä»¯Ç÷ÊƵÄÈ·ÈÏ£º
¹É¼ÛÉÏÉý£¨Ï½µ£©£¬¶øOBVÒ²ÏàÓ¦ÉÏÉý£¨Ï½µ£©£¬Ôò¿ÉÈ·Èϵ±Ç°ÉÏÉý£¨Ï½µ£©Ç÷ÊÆ
¹É¼ÛÉÏÉý£¨Ï½µ£©£¬µ«OBV²¢Î´ÏàÓ¦ÉÏÉý£¨Ï½µ£©£¬³öÏÖ±³ÀëÏÖÏó£¬Ôò¶ÔÄ¿Ç°ÉÏÉý£¨Ï½µ£©Ç÷ÊƵÄÈ϶¨³Ì¶ÈÒª´ó´òÕÛ¿Û¡£
¢Û ÐÎ̬ѧºÍÇÐÏßÀíÂÛͬÑùÊÊÓÃÓÚOBVÇúÏß¡£
¢Ü ¹É¼Û½øÈëÅÌÕûÇøºó£¬OBVÇúÏß»áÂÊÏÈÏÔ¶³öÍÑÀëÅÌÕûµÄÐźţ¬ÏòÉÏ»òÏòÏÂÍ»ÆÆ£¬Çҳɹ¦Âʽϴó¡£
OBVÏßÊÇÔ¤²â¹ÉÊжÌÆÚ²¨¶¯µÄÖØÒªÖ¸±ê£¬ÀûÓÃOBV¿ÉÑéÖ¤µ±Ç°¹É¼Û×ßÊƵĿɿ¿ÐÔ£¬²¢¿ÉÒԵõ½Ç÷ÊÆ¿ÉÄÜ·´×ªµÄÐźš£
37
ËÄ¡¢´óÊÆÐÍÖ¸±ê
1¡¢ADL£¨ÌÚÂäÖ¸Êý£©
ADLÒÔ¹ÉƱÿÌìÉÏÕÇ»òϵøµÄ¼ÒÊý×÷Ϊ¹Û²ì¶ÔÏó£¬Í¨¹ý¼òµ¥ËãÊõ¼Ó¼õÀ´±È½ÏÿÈÕÉÏÕǹÉƱºÍϵø¹ÉƱ¼ÒÊýµÄÀÛ»ýÇé¿ö£¬ÐγÉÉýµøÇúÏߣ¬²¢Óë×ÛºÏÖ¸ÊýÏ໥¶Ô±È£¬¶Ô´óÊƵÄδÀ´½øÐÐÔ¤²â¡£
Ó¦Ó÷¨Ôò£º
¢Ù ADLµÄÓ¦ÓÃÖØÔÚÏà¶Ô×ßÊÆ£¬¶ø²»¿´ÖØÈ¡Öµ´óС¡£ÓëOBVÏàËÆ¡£
¢Ú ADL²»Äܵ¥¶ÀʹÓã¬ÒªÍ¬¹É¼ÛÇúÏßÁªºÏʹÓòÅÄÜÏÔʾ³ö×÷Óá£
ADLÓë¹É¼Ûͬ²½ÉÏÉý£¨Ï½µ£©£¬´´Ð¸ߣ¨µÍ£©£¬Ôò¿ÉÑéÖ¤´óÊƵÄÉÏÉý£¨Ï½µ£©Ç÷ÊÆ£¬¶ÌÆÚÄÚ·´×ª¿ÉÄÜÐÔ²»´ó¡£
ADLÁ¬ÐøÉÏÕÇ£¨Ïµø£©Á˺ܳ¤Ê±¼ä£¨Ò»°ãÊÇ3Ì죩£¬¶øÖ¸ÊýÈ´ÏòÏà·´·½Ïòϵø£¨ÉÏÉý£©Á˺ܳ¤Ê±¼ä£¬ÕâÊÇÂò½ø£¨Âô³ö£©Ðźţ¬ÖÁÉÙÓз´µ¯´æÔÚ¡£
ÔÚÖ¸Êý½øÈë¸ß루µÍλ£©Ê±£¬ADL²¢Ã»ÓÐͬ²½Ðж¯£¬¶øÊÇ¿ªÊ¼×ßƽ»òϽµ£¨ÉÏÉý£©£¬ÕâÊÇÇ÷ÊƽøÈëβÉùµÄÐźš£
ADL±£³ÖÉÏÉý£¨Ï½µ£©Ç÷ÊÆ£¬Ö¸ÊýÈ´ÔÚÖÐ;·¢ÉúתÕÛ£¬µ«ºÜ¿ìÓÖ»Ö¸´ÔÓÐÇ÷ÊÆ£¬²¢´´Ð¸ߣ¨µÍ£©£¬ÕâÊÇÂò½ø£¨Âô³ö£©Ðźţ¬ÊǺóÊж෽£¨¿Õ·½£©Á¦Á¿Ç¿Ê¢µÄ±êÖ¾¡£
¢Û ÐÎ̬ѧºÍÇÐÏßÀíÂÛÒ²ÊÊÓá£
¢Ü ¾ÑéÖ¤Ã÷£¬ADL¶Ô¶àÍ·Êг¡µÄÓ¦ÓñȶԿÕÍ·Êг¡µÄÓ¦ÓÃЧ¹ûºÃ¡£
2¡¢ADR£¨Õǵø±ÈÖ¸±ê£©
ADRÊǸù¾Ý¹ÉƱµÄÉÏÕǼÒÊýºÍϵø¼ÒÊýµÄ±ÈÖµ£¬ÍƶÏ֤ȯÊг¡¶à¿ÕË«·½Á¦Á¿µÄ¶Ô±È£¬½ø¶øÅжϳö֤ȯÊг¡µÄʵ
38
¼ÊÇé¿ö¡£
Ó¦Ó÷¨Ôò£º
£¨1£©ADRµÄÈ¡Öµ£º
ADRÔÚ0.5¡«1.5Ö®¼äÊdz£Ì¬Çé¿ö£¬¶à¿ÕË«·½´¦ÓÚ¾ùºâ״̬¡£¼«¶ËÌØÊâÇé¿öÏ£¬Èç³öÏÖÍ»·¢Àû¶à¡¢Àû¿ÕÏûÏ¢ÒýÆð¹ÉÊб©ÕDZ©µøʱ£¬ADR³£Ì¬µÄÉÏÏÞ¿ÉÐÞÕýΪ1.9£¬ÏÂÏÞÐÞÕýΪ0.4¡£³¬¹ýADR³£Ì¬×´¿öµÄÉÏÏÂÏÞ£¬¾ÍÊDzÉÈ¡Ðж¯µÄÐźš£
£¨2£©ADR¿ÉÓë×ÛºÏÖ¸ÊýÅäºÏʹÓã¬Ó¦Ó÷¨ÔòÓëADLÏàͬ£¬Ò²ÓÐÒ»ÖÂÓë±³ÀëÁ½ÖÖÇé¿ö¡£
£¨3£©ADRÇúÏßµÄÐÎ̬£º
ADR´ÓµÍÏò¸ß³¬¹ý0.5£¬²¢ÔÚ0.5ÉÏÏÂÀ´»ØÒƶ¯¼¸´Î£¬ÊÇ¿ÕÍ·½øÈëÄ©ÆÚµÄÐźš£ADR´Ó¸ßÏòµÍϽµµ½0.75֮ϣ¬ÊǶÌÆÚ·´µ¯µÄÐźš£
ADRÏÈϽµµ½³£Ì¬×´¿öµÄÏÂÏÞ£¬µ«²»¾Ã¾ÍÉÏÉý²¢½Ó½ü³£Ì¬×´¿öµÄÉÏÏÞ£¬Ôò˵Ã÷¶àÍ·ÒѾßÓÐ×ã¹»µÄÁ¦Á¿½«×ÛºÏÖ¸ÊýÀÉÏÒ»¸ǫ̈½×¡£
£¨4£©´óÊƶÌÆڻصµ»ò·´µ¯·½Ã棬ADRÓÐÏÈÐÐʾ¾¯×÷Óá£Èô¹É¼ÛÖ¸ÊýÓëADR³É±³ÀëÏÖÏó£¬Ôò´óÊƼ´½«·´×ª¡£
3¡¢OBOS£¨³¬Âò³¬ÂôÖ¸±ê£©
ÔËÓÃÉÏÕǺÍϵøµÄ¹ÉƱ¼ÒÊýµÄ²î¾à¶Ô´óÊƽøÐзÖÎö¡£
Ó¦Ó÷¨Ôò£º
£¨1£©OBOSÈ¡ÖµÔÚ0¸½½ü±ä»¯Ê±£¬Êг¡´¦ÓÚÅÌÕûʱÆÚ£»OBOSΪÕýÊýʱ£¬Êг¡´¦ÓÚÉÏÕÇÐÐÇ飻OBOSΪ¸ºÊýʱ£¬Êг¡´¦ÓÚϵøÐÐÇé¡£
39
OBOS´ïµ½Ò»¶¨ÕýÊýֵʱ£¬´óÊÆ´¦ÓÚ³¬Âò½×¶Î£¬¿ÉÔñ»úÂô³ö£»OBOS´ïµ½Ò»¶¨¸ºÊýʱ£¬´óÊƳ¬Âô£¬%B
14£®ºÎΪ¼¼Êõ·ÖÎöÅбðÂòÂôµãµÄ¸ñÀ¼Î¬¶û°Ë·¨Ôò£¿ ¸ñÀ¼Î¬¶û°Ë´óÂòÂô·¨Ôò£º
Ò»¡¢µ±¾ùÏß´ÓϽµÖð½¥×ªÎªË®Æ½£¬¶ø¹É¼Û´Óƽ¾ùÏßµÄÏ·½ÏòÉÏÒƶ¯²¢Í»ÆÆƽ¾ùÏßʱÒËÂò½ø¡££¨Á¬ÐøÁ½´ÎµÄ¸üºÃ£©
¶þ¡¢¹É¼ÛһʱµøÆÆƽ¾ùÏߣ¬µ«Æ½¾ùÏ߶ÌÆÚÄÚÒÀÈ»¼ÌÐøÉÏÉýʱ£¬ÒËÂò½ø¡£
Èý¡¢µ±¹É¼ÛÁ¬ÐøÉÏÉýÔ¶Àëƽ¾ùÏßÖ®ÉÏ(¼´¹ÔÀëÌ«´ó£©Ê±£¬Í»È»Ïµø£¬µ«Î´µøÆÆƽ¾ùÏß±ãÓÖÉÏÉýʱ£¬ÒËÂò½ø¡£
ËÄ¡¢¹É¼ÛµøÆÆƽ¾ùÏߺóͻȻÁ¬Á¬±©µø£¬Ô¶Àëƽ¾ùÏߣ¬ÊôÓÚ³¬ÂôÏÖÏó£¬Èç¹ûÕâʱ¹É¼Û¿ªÊ¼»ØÉý£¬ÒËÂò½ø¡£
Îå¡¢µ±Æ½¾ùÏß×ßÊÆÓÉÉÏÉýÖð½¥×ßƽתÍäϵø£¬¶ø¹É¼Û´Óƽ¾ùÏßÉÏ·½ÏòϵøÆÆƽ¾ùÏßʱ£¬ÊÇÖØÒªµÄÂô³öÐźš£
Áù¡¢¹É¼ÛËäÈ»ÏòÉÏÍ»ÆÆƽ¾ùÏߣ¬µ«ÓÖÁ¢¿Ìµøµ½Æ½¾ùÏß֮ϣ¬¶øÕâʱƽ¾ùÏßÈÔÔÚ¼ÌÐøÏÂ×ߣ¬ÎªÂô³öÐźš£
Æß¡¢¹É¼ÛµøÂäÓÚƽ¾ùÏß֮ϣ¬È»ºóÏòƽ¾ùÏßµ¯Éý£¬µ«Î´Í»ÆÆƽ¾ùÏß¼´ÓÖ¸æ»ØÂ䣬ҲÊÇÂô³öÐźš£ °Ë¡¢¹É¼Û¼±ËÙÉÏÉý£¬ÔÚƽ¾ùÏßÉÏ·½Òƶ¯ÇÒ¾àƽ¾ùÏßÔ½À´Ô½Ô¶£¨¼´¹ÔÀëÌ«´ó£©£¬ÉÏÕÇ·ù¶ÈÏ൱¿É¹ÛʱÊÇÂô³öÐźš£
¾ùÏßÔÚÉÏÉý×ßÊÆÖУ¬¶Ô¹É¼Û¾ßÓÐÖú³¤µÄ×÷Ó㻾ùÏßÔÚϵø×ßÊÆÖУ¬¶Ô¹É¼Û¾ßÓÐÖúµøµÄ×÷Óá£Ä³Ò»ÌìµÄ¹É¼Û²¢²»Äܸıä¾ùÏߵķ½Ïò£¬µ«¾ùÏßÈ´¶Ô¹É¼Û¾ßÓÐÇ¿ÁÒµÄÎüÒý×÷Óá£
15£®ºÎΪ¼¼Êõ·ÖÎöµÄ±³ÀëÔÔò£¿³ýÁËÕâ¸öÔÔòÖ®Íâ¼¼Êõ·ÖÎö»¹ÓÐʲôÔÔò£¿ÊÔ¾ÙÒ»Àý¡£
ʲô½Ð×ö¼¼ÊõÖ¸±êµÄ±³ÀëÔÔò?<<֤ȯÊг¡·ÖÎö>> ÎÒÃÇÔÚÔËÓü¼ÊõÖ¸±êʱ£¬¾³£»áÓöµ½¹É¼Û×ßÊÆÓëÖ¸±ê×ßÊƱ³ÀëµÄÏÖÏó¡£±³À룬¼òµ¥µØ˵¾ÍÊÇ×ßÊƵIJ»Ò»Ö¡£µ±±³ÀëµÄÌØÕ÷Ò»µ©³öÏÖ£¬¾ÍÊÇÒ»¸ö±È½ÏÃ÷ÏԵIJÉÈ¡Ðж¯µÄÐźš£ Ö¸±ê±³ÀëÓÐÁ½ÖÖ£¬Ò»ÖÖÊǶ¥±³À룬ÁíÒ»ÖÖÊǵױ³Àë¡£¶¥±³Àëͨ³£³öÏÖÔڹɼ۵ĸߵµÎ»Öᣵ±¹É¼ÛµÄ¸ßµã±ÈÇ°Ò»´ÎµÄ¸ßµã¸ß£¬¶øÖ¸±êµÄ¸ßµãÈ´±ÈÖ¸±êÇ°Ò»´ÎµÄ¸ßµãµÍ£¬»»¾ä»°Ëµ£¬¾ÍÊʵ±Ö¸±ê´¦ÓÚ¸ß룬²¢ÐγÉÒ»·å±ÈÒ»·åµÍµÄÁ½¸ö·å£¬¶ø´Ëʱ¹É¼ÛÈ´¶ÔÓ¦µÄÊÇÒ»·å±ÈÒ»·å¸ß£¬Ôò±íʾ¸ÃÖ¸±ê»³ÒÉ»³Òɹɼ۵ÄÉÏÕÇÊÇÍâÇ¿Öиɣ¬°µÊ¾¹É¼ÛºÜ¿ì¾Í»á·´×ªÏµø£¬Õâ¾ÍÊÇËùνµÄ¡°¶¥±³À롱£¬ÊDZȽÏÇ¿ÁÒµÄÂô³öÐźš£·´Ö®£¬µ×±³ÀëÒ»°ã³öÏÖÔڹɼ۵ĵ͵µÎ»Ö㬵±¹É¼ÛµÄµÍµã±ÈÇ°Ò»´ÎµÄµÍµãµÍ£¬¶øÖ¸±êµÄµÍµãÈ´±ÈÖ¸±êÇ°Ò»´ÎµÄµÍµã¸ß£¬Ò²¾ÍÊÇ˵µ±Ö¸±êÈÏΪ¹É¼Û²»»áÔÙ³ÖÐøµØϵø£¬°µÊ¾¹É¼Û»á·´×ªÉÏÕÇ£¬Õâ¾ÍÊÇ¡°µ×±³À롱£¬ÊÇ¿ÉÒÔ¿ªÊ¼½¨²ÖµÄÐźš£ ÎÒÃÇƽʱʹÓõļ¼ÊõÖ¸±ê£¬ÈçMACD,W%R,RSI,KDJµÈ£¬ÆäÐÎ̬¶¼´æÔÚ±³ÀëµÄÌØÕ÷¡£ÏȾÙÀý˵Ã÷Ò»ÏÂÖ¸±ê±³Àë
40