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新视野大学英语第四册 unit1B Why do smart people do dumb things
Why do smart people do dumb things? 聪明人为何会做蠢事？
Orthodox views prize intelligence and intellectual rigor highly in the modern realm of universities and tech industry jobs、 One of the underlying assumptions of this value system is that smart people, by virtue of what they've learned, will formulate better decisions、 Often this is true、 Yet psychologists who study human decision making processes have uncovered cognitive biases common to all people, regardless of intelligence, that can lead to poor decisions in experts and laymen alike、
传统观念将智力与思维得缜密性瞧作现代大学领域与科技产业工作得重要素质。这一价值体系所隐含得前提就是，聪明人借助自己丰富得学识会作出更高明得决定。在大多数情况下，确实如此。但就是，研究人类决策过程得心理学家们却发现了每个人身上都常见得“认知偏差”。不管智力水平如何，这些认知偏差都会引导人们作出错误得决定，不论她们就是专家还就是门外汉。
Thankfully these biases can be avoided、 Understanding how and in what situations they occur can give you an awareness of your own limitations and allow you to factor them into your decision-making、
好在这些偏差就是可以避免得。只要知道这些偏差如何及在何种情况下发生，您就能意识到自身得缺陷，并在决策过程中考虑到这些因素得影响。
One of the most common biases is what is known as the
fundamental attribution error、 Through this people attribute the failures of others to character flaws and their own to mere circumstance, subconsciously considering their own characters to be stainless、 \
新视野大学英语第四册 unit1B Why do smart people do dumb things
the recession、\qualifications, discounting luck, while seeing others' success as the product of mere luck、
最常见得偏差之一就就是通常所说得“基本归因错误”。犯这种错误得人会将别人得失败归因于性格缺陷，而将自己得失败仅仅归因于周遭环境，潜意识中认为自己得性格就是完美无瑕得。“詹金斯丢掉了工作就是因为她能力太差，我丢掉了工作则就是因为经济衰退。”同样，这种偏差也会让我们将自己得成功归功于自身素质而不就是运气，而将别人得成功仅仅瞧作就是运气使然。
In other words, we typically demand more accountability from others than we do from ourselves、 Not only does this lead to petty judgments about other people, it also leads to faulty risk assessment when you assume that certain bad things only happen to others、 For example, you might assume, without evidence, that the price of your house will go up even though 90 percent of them have dropped in price, because you yourself are more competent、
换句话说，我们通常要求别人承担更多得责任，而不就是自己。这不仅导致我们心胸狭窄地对别人进行评价，也会由于假定某种坏事只会发生在别人身上而致使我们做出错误得风险评判。举一个例子，您可能会毫无根据地假定自己得房子会升值，哪怕周围百分之九十得房子都已经贬值了，因为您总认为自己得能力更强。 Confirmation bias is sometimes found together with fundamental attribution error、 This one has two parts、 First, we tend to gather and rely upon information that only confirms our existing views、 Second, we avoid or veto things that refute our preexisting hypotheses、
新视野大学英语第四册 unit1B Why do smart people do dumb things
“确定性偏差”有时会与“基本归因错误”一并出现。这种偏差包含两部分：第一，我们往往只收集且只依赖对我们得已有观点起支持作用得信息；第二，我们回避或否认那些与自己之前所持得假设相左得信息。
For example, imagine that you suspect your computer has been hacked、 Every time it stalls or has a little error, you assume that it was triggered by a hacker and that your suspicions are valid、 This bias plays an especially big role in rivalries between two opposing views、 Each side partitions their own beliefs in a logic-proof loop, and claims their opponent is failing to recognize valid points、 Outwitting confirmation bias therefore requires exploring both sides of an argument with equal diligence、
比如说，假设您怀疑自己得电脑受到了黑客攻击，那么它每次死机或出个小错，您都会认定就是由黑客引起得，而且您认定自己得怀疑正确无误。这种偏差在两种敌对观点得对抗中会起到尤其重要得作用。每一方都会把自己得观点隔离出来，认为其在逻辑上无懈可击，并声称她们得对手忽略了某些要点。所以，要克服“确定性偏差”，就要以同样得努力认真探究论点得正反两面。
Similar to confirmation bias is the overconfidence bias、 In an ideal world, we could be correct 100 percent of the time we were 100 percent sure about something, correct 80 percent of the time we were 80 percent sure about something, and so on、 In reality, people's confidence vastly exceeds the accuracy of those judgments、 This bias most frequently comes into play in areas where someone has no direct evidence and must make a guess - estimating how many people are in a crowded plaza, for example, or how likely it will rain、 To make matters worse, even when people are aware of overconfidence bias, they will still tend
新视野大学英语第四册 unit1B Why do smart people do dumb things
to overstate the chances that they are correct、 Confidence is no prophet and is best used together with available evidence、 When witnesses are called to testify in a court trial, the confidence in their testimony is measured along with and against the evidence at hand、
与“确定性偏差”相类似得就是“过度自信偏差”。在一个理想得世界，当我们百分之百地确信某件事时，我们就百分之百地正确；当我们百分之八十地确信某件事时，我们就百分之八十地正确，以此类推。但在现实中，人们得信心却大大超过了其判断得准确度。在一个人缺乏直接证据而必须要作出某种猜测得情况下，这一偏差就最有可能起作用，比如，估计一个拥挤得购物广场有多少人，或下雨得可能性有多大。更糟糕得就是，即使人们意识到自己有过度自信得偏差，她们还就是会高估自己得正确率。光靠自信就是无法进行准确预测得，只有在切实证据得基础上，自信才能发挥最大得作用。当法庭传唤目击者出庭作证时，对她们证词得信任度就是通过已经获取得相符或相反得证据来度量得。
The availability bias is also related to errors in estimation, in that we tend to estimate what outcome is more likely by how easily we can recount an example from memory、 Since the retention and retrieval of memories is biased toward vivid, sensational, or emotionally charged examples, decisions based on them can often lead to strange, inaccurate conclusions、
凭借回忆某一例证得难易程度来推测哪种结果更可能出现。由于记忆得留存与重拾会因为事件得生动与否、震撼程度与情感触动程度得不同而产生偏差，那么，基于这些记忆所作出得决定也往往会就是奇怪或不准确得结论。