发布时间 : 星期五 文章The Future of Shopping更新完毕开始阅读
标题： The Future of Shopping. 作者:
Rigby, Darrell1,2
5088
*RETAIL industry *SHOPPING
*CONSUMER behavior *ONE-stop shopping *CONSUMERS' preferences *SOFTWARE
全文字数:
主题语:*ELECTRONIC commerce
*INTERNET sales *TELESHOPPING *TARGET marketing
*SELF-service (Economics)
*INTERNET marketing
摘要:
When the dot-com bubble burst 10 years ago, the ensuing collapse wiped out half of all online retailers. Today, ecommerce is well established and much digital retailing is now highly profitable. As it evolves, digital retailing is quickly morphing into something so different that it requires a new name: omnichannel retailing. The name reflects the fact that retailers will be able to interact with customers through countless channels-websites, physical stores, kiosks, direct mail and catalogs, call centers, social media, mobile devices, gaming consoles, televisions, networked appliances, home services, and more. If traditional retailers hope to survive, they must embrace omnichannel retailing and also transform the one big feature internet retailers lack-stores- from a liability into an asset. They must turn shopping into an entertaining, exciting, and emotionally engaging experience by skillfully blending the physical with the digital. They must also hire new kinds of talent, move away from outdated measures of success, and become adept at rapid test-and-learn methodologies. A successful omnichannel strategy should not only guarantee a retailer's survival-no small matter in today's environment-but also deliver a revolution in customers' expectations and experiences [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] 在十年前互联网泡沫破灭后紧接着发生的是将近一半的网络零售商被筛选掉。现在，电子商务稳步发展，许多数字化零售商正获得很高的利润。随着它的发展，数字化零售很快会变得完全不同，一个新的命名呼之欲出：那就是全方位多渠道的零售。这个命名反映出这样一个事实。销售商能与顾客通过不计其数的网站、实体店、终端机、 直接邮件、商品目录、呼叫中心、社会化媒体、移动设备、游戏机、电视、网络应用、家庭设备等等来进行交互。如果一个传统的零售商希望能继续经营下去，他们必须着手全方位多渠道的零售。传统零售商得利用一个网络零售商不具备的特征——实体商店——这可以从一个不利条件改为有利条件。他们必须把购物和数字化巧妙的结合成一种可以娱乐的,令人振奋的,动情的体验。他们将需要征聘新的各种类的人才，摒除过时的成功度量标准还要擅长运用“测试和学习”的方法。一个成功全方位多渠道的
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战略不应只保证这个零售商的生存——今日的商业环境打个喷嚏你也得振一振。它应实现在消费者期望和体验上有所革新。【作者摘要】
The Future of Shopping
购物的未来
Successful companies will engage customers through \digital and physical experiences.
成功的公司将会通过“全方位的渠道销售”来吸引客户:一个混搭网站的数字和物理的体验.
It's a snowy Saturday in Chicago, but Amy, age 28, needs resort wear for a Caribbean vacation. Five years ago, in 2011, she would have headed straight for the mall. Today she starts shopping from her couch by launching a videoconference with her personal concierge at Danella, the retailer where she bought two outfits the previous month. The concierge recommends several items, superimposing photos of them onto Amy's avatar. Amy rejects a couple of items immediately, toggles to another browser tab to research customer reviews and prices, finds better deals on several items at another retailer, and orders them. She buys one item from Danella online and then drives to the Danella store near her for the in-stock items she wants to try on.
周六的芝加哥下着雪,但28岁艾米需要一套加勒比度假用的度假服。 五年前的2011年的话她会直奔商场。今天，她在睡椅上就可以购物了。她上个月在Danella买了2套礼裙，现在正和那家店里的私人接待员进行视屏对话。接待员又推荐了一些服饰给她，并为艾米的虚拟化形象“穿上”了这些服饰。艾米还是立刻拒绝他的推荐,并切换到另一个浏览器选项卡去看看客户的评价和价格,找到了其他更划算的零销商。她从Danella网店买了一套，然后驱车到她附近所在的有存货的店里试穿。
As Amy enters Danella, a sales associate greets her by name and walks her to a dressing room stocked with her online selections--plus some matching shoes and a cocktail dress. She likes the shoes, so she scans the bar code into her smartphone and finds the same pair for $30 less at another store. The sales associate quickly offers to match the price, and encourages Amy to try on the dress. It is daring and expensive, so Amy sends a video to three stylish friends, asking for their opinion. The responses come quickly: three thumbs down. She collects the items she wants, scans an internet site for coupons (saving an additional $73), and checks out with her smartphone.
当艾米入到Danella服装店，一个销售员用她的名字来和艾米打招呼，并带她走到试
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衣间，拿来了艾米在网上订的货品——加上了一堆合适的鞋子和短裙。她喜欢这双鞋，于是她用智能手机扫描了这双鞋的条形码，发现另外一家店的比这里便宜30元，这个销售员马上提供了一个合适的价格，并劝艾米去试试那条裙子。这条裙子奔放而又昂贵，于是她发了一段录像给她3个时髦的朋友来问问建议，很快就有了回应，他们都作出了不好的评价。她收集了他想要的列单，扫描了一个优惠券网站（可以节省73元），然后用她的只能手机付账后离开了。
As she heads for the door, a life-size screen recognizes her and shows a special offer on an irresistible summer-weight top. Amy checks her budget online, smiles, and uses her phone to scan the customized Quick Response code on the screen. The item will be shipped to her home overnight.
当她走向门口的时候，一个和她一样大小的屏幕识别到她并显示出一套无法抗拒的特价夏日装。她查了下他的在线预算，笑了出来，用她的手机去扫描那个屏幕上定制的快速响应代码。一夜下来，这夏日装就可以送到她家去。
This scenario is fictional, but it's neither as futuristic nor as fanciful as you might think. All the technology Amy uses is already available--and within five years, much of it will be ubiquitous. But what seems like a dream come true for the shopper--an abundance of information, near-perfect price transparency, a parade of special deals--is already feeling more like a nightmare for many retailers. Companies such as Tower Records, Circuit City, Linens 'n Things, and Borders are early victims--and there will be more.
这个情景是虚构的，但并非是不合实际的。艾米用的所有的技术已经实现——在未来的五年内，很多的这些将无所不在。这好像是顾客梦想成真的事——充足的信息,近于完美价格的透明度，一连串特价——对于零售商来说感觉就像一个噩梦。Tower Records, Circuit City, Linens 'n Things, and Borders这样的公司是早期的受害者——而且将会有更多。
Every 50 years or so, retailing undergoes this kind of disruption. A century and a half ago, the growth of big cities and the rise of railroad networks made possible the modern department store. Mass-produced automobiles came along 50 years later, and soon shopping malls lined with specialty retailers were dotting the newly forming suburbs and challenging the city-based department stores. The 1960s and 1970s saw the spread of discount chains. Walmart, Kmart, and the like--and, soon after, big-box \such as Circuit City and Home Depot, all of them undermining or transforming the old-style mall. Each wave of change doesn't eliminate what came before it, but it reshapes the landscape and redefines consumer expectations, often beyond recognition. Retailers relying on earlier formats either adapt or die out as the new ones pull volume from their stores and make the remaining volume less profitable.
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每隔50年左右的时间,零售业就会经历这种破坏。 一个半世纪前,大城市和铁路网络的增长使现代的百货商店成为可能。大批量生产的汽车出现50年后,有专业零售的大型购物中心会很快连结新发展起来的郊区，并对百货商店带来挑战。在1960年代和1970年代初，时间见证了折扣连锁店的扩张发展。沃尔玛、凯马特还有不久后的,大包装“品类杀手”如电路城和家得宝,所有的这些破坏着或改造着旧形式的商城。 每次改变的浪潮并不消除之前所出现的商城,但它改造了现状和重新定义了消费者的期望,这往往是被忽视了的。零售商依赖于较早的形式或者努力适应或灭亡了因为新的百货店会拉低他们的销售量以及会使剩下的利润减少。
Like most disruptions, digital retail technology got off to a shaky start. A bevy of internet-based retailers in the 1990s--Amazon.com, Pets.com, and pretty much everythingelse.com--embraced what they called online shopping or electronic commerce. These fledgling companies ran wild until a combination of ill-conceived strategies, speculative gambles, and a slowing economy burst the dot-com bubble. The ensuing collapse wiped out half of all e-commerce retailers and provoked an abrupt shift from irrational exuberance to economic reality.
像大多数的破坏,一个数字零售技术业会开始晃动。二十世纪90年代的一些互联网零售商--amazon.com,pets.com,everythingelse.com--坐拥着他们的所谓的网购或电子商务。这些新兴公司疯狂的发展直到构想拙劣策略,投机性的赌博,和一个正在放缓的经济爆发的互联网泡沫一并涌过来。随之的失败抹去了一半的电子商务零售商并且引发了从非理性繁荣到经济现实的剧变。
Today, however, that economic reality is well established. The research firm Forrester estimates that e-commerce is now approaching $200 billion in revenue in the United States alone and accounts for 9% of total retail sales, up from 5% five years ago. The corresponding figure is about 10% in the United Kingdom, 3% in Asia-Pacific, and 2% in Latin America. Globally, digital retailing is probably headed toward 15% to 20% of total sales, though the proportion will vary significantly by sector. Moreover, much digital retailing is now highly profitable. Amazon's five-year average return on investment, for example, is 17%, whereas traditional discount and department stores average 6.5%. 然而,现今的经济现实是好的。福瑞斯特研究公司估计,仅在美国电子商务就正在接近2000亿美元的税收收入,占社会消费品零售总额的9%,高于5年前的5%。在英国相应的则是10%，亚太地区3%,拉丁美洲2%。从全球范围来看,数字化零售可能会朝向15%到20%的总销售额,尽管这一比例将会有别于不同部门。不仅如此,许多数字化零售现在能获得高利润。亚马逊的五年平均投资回报率,比如是17%,而传统的折扣和百货公司平均就只有6.5%。
What we are seeing today is only the beginning. Soon it will be hard even to define
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