发布时间 : 星期四 文章《中级财务管理》第3章习题及参考答案更新完毕开始阅读
案例3：
某房地产开发公司对某一地块有两种开发方案。
A方案：一次性开发多层住宅45000m2建筑面积，需投入总成本费用(包括前期开发成本、施工建造成本和销售成本，下同)9000万元，开发时间(包括建造、销售时间，下同)为18个月。
B方案：将该地块分成东、西两区分两期开发。一期在东区先开发高层住宅36000m2，建筑面积，需投入总成本费用8100万元，开发时间为15个月。二期开发时，如果一期销路好，且预计二期销售率可达100%（售价和销量同一期），则在西区继续投入总成本费用8100万元开发高层住宅36000m2建筑面积；如果一期销路差，或暂停开发，或在西区改为开发多层住宅22000m2建筑面积，需投入总成本费用4600万元，开发时间为15个月。 两方案销路好和销路差时的售价和销量情况汇总于表1。
根据经验，多层住宅销路好的概率为0.7%，高层住宅销路好的概率为0.6%.暂停开发每季损失10万元。季利率为2%。 表1
建筑开发方案 面 积(万元) A方案 B 一期 方 二期 案 一期销路差 多层住宅 高层住宅 一期销路好 高层住宅 多层住宅 停建 2．2 4800 100 4300 80 4．5 3．6 3．6 4800 5500 5500 100 100 100 4300 5000 80 70 销路好 售价(元／M2) 销路差 销售率(%) 售价(元／m2) 销售率(%) 思考题：
1．两方案销路好和销路差情况下分期计算季平均销售收入各为多少万元?(假定销售收入在开发时间内均摊)
2．绘制两级决策的决策树。 3．试决定采用哪个方案。
参考答案 1．
解：计算季平均销售收入： A方案开发多层住宅： 销路好：4.5×4800×100％÷6=3600(万元) 销路差：4.5×4300×80％÷6=2580(万元) B方案一期：
开发高层住宅：销路好：3.6×5500×100％÷5=3960(万元) 销路差：3.6×5000×70％÷5：2520(万元) B方案二期：
开发高层住宅：3.6×5500×100％÷5=3960(万元) 开发多层住宅：销路好：2.2×4800×100％÷5=2112(万元) 销路差：2.2×4300×80％÷5=1513.6(万元)
2.
3：
解：方案选择 机会点①
净现值的期望值=(3600×0.7+2580×0.3) ×(P／A，2％，6)-9000=(3600×0.7十2580×0.3) ×5.601-9000=9449.69(万元)
等额年金：9449.6 9×(A／P，2％，6)=9449.69×/(P／A，2％，6) =9449.69/5.601 =1687.14(万元) 机会点③
净现值的期望值：3960×(P／A，2％，5) ×1.0—8100 =3960×4.713×1.0-8100=10563.48(万元)
等额年金：10563.48×(A／P，2％，5)=10563.48/(P／A，2％，5) = 10563.48/4.713=2241.35(万元) 机会点④
净现值的期望值：-10×(P／A，2％，5) =-10×4.713=—47.13(万元) 等额年金：-47.13×(A／P，2％，5)=-47.13/(P／A，2％，5) =-47.13/4.713=-10.00(万元) 机会点⑤
净现值的期望值：(2112×0.7十1513.6×0.3) ×(P／A，2％，5) -4600 =(2112×0.7十1513.6×0.3) ×4.713-4600=4507.78(万元)
等额年金：4507.78×(A／P，2％，5)=4507.78/(P／A，2％，5)=956.46(万元) 根据计算结果判断，B方案在一期开发高层住宅销路差的情况下，二期应改为开发多层住宅。 机会点②
净现值的期望值：[10563.48×(P／F，2％，5) +3960×(P／A，2％，5)) ×0.6 +[4507.78×(P／F，2％，5)十2520×(P／A，2％，5)] ×0.4-8100
=(10563.48×0.906+3960×4.713) ×0.6十(4507.78×0.906十2520×4.713) ×0.4-8100 =16940.40+6384.32-8100=15224.72(万元)
等额年金：15224.72×(A／P，2％，10)=15224.72/(P／A，2％，10) =15224.72/8.917=1707.38(万元)
Never give upNever give up,Never lose hope. Always have
faith, It allows you to cope . Trying times will pass, As they always do.Just have patience,
Your dreams will come true.So put on a smile, You’ll live through your pain. Know. It. Will. Pass,And strength you will gain.Arthur VogelsangNo one was learning French fast.I was learning French too slowly andSome were learning at an average speed.We had to learn it fast. There was a great planeComing for us and we had to know FrenchWhen we got on it or else.Later we found out there was no or else.We boarded the plane knowing an amount of French.Enough that the others covered for me.That was easy, I never spoke French,I never spoke. Far up over Earth and FranceWhere we floated which of course was funIn the great plane, in the great swift plane as I have said,That high, the French spoke to us in French,Numbersand other manifold numbersFor hours -- division and multiplication are the hairiest,The epitome of difficult, for a non-native speaker.
According to my character I did something else,No counting, no speaking French. I was thereTo float and study and be studied and do unmentionablesSo I forgot about learning French fast and I forgot aboutTheir or else, I said to myself I think I am their or else.I was not. In such a risky venture or spéI think it was decided to include somebody not fast and not smartLike a slow horse that keeps a posse at its safe pacThe endless arguments about this had been in French and English,Back and forth endlessly they had gone at it,So we began by trying to learn French fast.And the rain stopped. And the sky spunpast the hills' flush of winter corn.The mare strode out as though still young.You walked. I almost said, last yearI saw a hare run with her youngjust past the broken wall, just here.Two flew in circles. First, one roseupon its great back legs. It boxed
at air. The second flinched, then rose.England has blackbirds, mice. To findthese strong black shapes makes the heart raceas barley under icy wind.Boxing is courtship, failed. One broke,tore past us to the rough safe hedge.She crossed the sun. Her colours woke,ears black, back russet, earth new-laid.
Her legs stretched straight. The late showers madebright water fly from every blade.